THE WEDNESDAY WAGER
Happy Wednesday, fellow degenerates. Welcome to another gambling “newsletter” powered by the three pillars of CPG betting analysis: hunch, personal bias, and unresolved grudges.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am has arrived—the strangest event on the PGA Tour and the season’s first Signature Event. Eighty amateurs will be paired with eighty of golf’s biggest names. Rory. The Scheff–meister. Tommy Fleetwood.
The format features 54 holes at Pebble Beach and 18 at Spyglass Hill. It’s half corporate retreat, half genuine competition—and 100% networking. Expect CEOs, celebrities, tech yahoos, athletes, and regular yahoos. The amateurs tee it up Thursday and Friday. There is no cut for the pros.
Last year, Rory won by two strokes over Shane Lowry. In 2024, Mark Wahlberg’s friend Wyndham Clark won. #municipal
Pebble is one of the shortest Tour stops of the year. The greens are small, and statistically speaking, the pros struggle inside ten feet. As of this writing, weather conditions are favorable. Look for the winner to finish around 20-under.
Entering play, Scottie Scheffler is once again the commanding favorite at +275. He followed an opening-round 73 at the WM Phoenix Open with rounds of 65-67-64, reminding everyone exactly how things work. He’s played Pebble twice and finished top-10 both times. Betting against him feels irresponsible, but more and more it’s starting to seem that Chris “Chicken Parmesan” Gotterup is the new Scheffler.
Following Scheffler in pre-tournament odds are: Rory (+1400), Si Woo Kim (+2250), Tommy Fleetwood (+2250), and Russell Henley (+2500).
Henley is my play. His approach game has been #elite.
I expect Viktor Hovland to have a good week.
Why? I don’t know. Mostly, he seems like a nice guy.
Which brings us to Jordan Spieth, everyone’s favorite bundle of nerves. His creativity around the greens should be rewarded at Pebble. Plus, it’s well established that when conditions get weird, Spieth gets weirder, and things always tend to get weird around Pebble. Imagine being at an after party with Billy Horschel and Condoleezza Rice. Weird indeed.
Last year Justin Rose finished T-3, closing the tournament with my favorite shot of the year (holing out with a three wood from just off the green).
I’m a big believer in “chipping” with a three-wood. If it didn’t look so lame, more people would do it. Did Rose make it cool? Absolutely not. Nothing he does could ever be described as cool. Still, it’s a shot that offers a valuable escape hatch afterward—“If not for the lies at this dog track, I’d have chipped that to three feet.”
Recently, I pulled three wood on the fringe and my playing partner, Ricky Pawloski, told me it was like watching a man sit down to pee.
Screw you, Pawloski.
Earlier this year, Rose was electric at the Farmers Insurance Open, roasting the field by seven strokes. Can he capture that magic again? Possibly. After all, his game is built on intellectual dominance and the ability to avoid unnecessary blow-up holes.
If you’ve been reading any of these “newsletters” it should go without saying that I’m a big fan of Bob MacIntyre. However, I’ll be avoiding him this week. He’s a new father and upon arriving in California, he promptly posted a photo of an In-N-Out burger.
Congratulations to Bob.
Was it soda or Elijah Craig in the to-go cup?
Other top-10 plays: Tommy Fleetwood and Maverick McNealy.
My value pick of the week is Sepp Straka (+6000). He’s been streaky in two starts this year (MC and T-18), but his iron play has been strong, which should set him up for success at Pebble.
Make sure to head over to the Club Pro Guy Pro Shop. We’ll be rolling out new merch over the next couple weeks. Get what you can while it’s still available! Use the code wager20 at checkout for 20% off your order.
